 |
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND
DISASTER VULNERABILITIES IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF BANGLADESH
 |
The coastal areas of Bangladesh is different from rest of the country not only
because of its unique geo-physical characteristics but also for different sociopolitical
consequences that often limits people’s access to endowed resources
and perpetuate risk and vulnerabilities. Coastal areas include coastal plain
islands, tidal flats, estuaries, neretic and offshore waters. It extends to the edge
of a wide (about 20 km) continental self. A vast river network, a dynamic
estuarine system and a drainage basin intersect the coastal zone, which made
coastal ecosystem as a potential source of natural resources, diversified fauna
and floral composition, though there also have immense risk of natural
disasters.
|
|
|
Click on section wise details with Table and Graphs . |
| |
| 01 |
Geo-Social Context of Bangladesh’s Coast |
Details |
| 02 |
Climate Change and Global Environmental Scenario
|
Details |
| 03 |
Sea Level Rise and Bangladesh |
Details |
| 04 |
Bangladesh’s Coast: The Worst Victim to Natural Disasters |
Details |
| 05 |
Other Natural Disasters and Bangladesh |
Details |
| 06 |
Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh |
Details |
| 07 |
Disaster and Global Scenario |
Details |
| 08 |
Governance: A Critical Concern that Increases Insecurity |
Details |
| 09 |
Climate Change, Disaster and Development Challenges |
Details |
| 10 |
Disaster Preparedness: Needs a Long Term Planning |
Details |
| 11 |
Capacity Building: The Only Way |
Details |
| 12 |
Considering Factors for Capacity Building |
Details |
|
| |
1. Geo-Social Context of Bangladesh’s Coast |
Area
(Acre/ Decimal) |
% of households |
Amount
% |
Remarks |
No land |
0.2 |
0.0 |
53.4% are functional land less |
No Agri Land |
21.3 |
4.7 |
Agri land ≤ 0.05 Deci |
8.0 |
4.6 |
5-49 Deci |
23.9 |
10.2 |
50-99 Deci |
13.8 |
10.0 |
100-149 Deci |
9.6 |
10.7 |
150-249 Deci |
10.5 |
16.2 |
250-749 Deci |
11.1 |
33.1 |
750 Gi Deci |
1.6 |
13.5 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
Table1: Distribution of land ownership in the
coastal areas;Source: Coastal Livelihoods,
ICZM June 2003
|
|
The coastal areas of Bangladesh is different from rest of the country not only
because of its unique geo-physical characteristics but also for different sociopolitical
consequences that often limits people’s access to endowed resources and perpetuate risk and vulnerabilities. Coastal areas include coastal plain islands, tidal flats, estuaries, neretic and offshore waters. It extends to the edge
of a wide (about 20 km) continental self. A vast river network, a dynamic
estuarine system and a drainage basin intersect the coastal zone, which made
coastal ecosystem as a potential source of natural resources, diversified fauna and floral composition, though there also have immense risk of natural disasters.
This coastal area represents an area of 47,211 km2, 32 percent of the country’s
geographical area, wherein 35 million people i.e. 28 percent of the country’s total
population live at 6.85 million households (Population census in 2001). In terms
of administrative consideration, 19 districts out of 64 are considered as coastal
district. A study of IPPC (Inter Governmental Panel of Climate Change) in 2001
reveals that 20 percent and 40 percent of the world population live within 30 kilometers and
100 kilometers of the coast respectively, which is very true in regards to Bangladesh’s
perspective. |
Households in a rural setting perceive land as the most important natural asset. Land is
scare; it is even scantier in the coastal zone. According to 1996 agriculture census, per capita
availability of homestead land is 0.004 ha. in the coastal zone which is lower than the outside
of coastal zone, per capita 0.005 ha. In regards to distribution and ownership of
cultivable land, gross cropped area and net cultivable area the situation is even worse. The
1996 agriculture census reveals that 53.4 percent coastal households are functionally land less (house hold in rural setting owning less than half an acre land is considered as functional land less) and these 53.4 percent households together own only 17 percent of land. On contrary, 12 percent people own 47
percent of total available land.
|
Year |
Population( million) |
Urban Population
(%) |
Coastal rural |
Coastal urban |
Total |
2001 |
27 |
8 |
35 |
23 |
2010 |
25 |
14 |
39 |
36 |
2020 |
22 |
22 |
44 |
50 |
Table 2: Population growth trend in the coastal areas
Source: Coastal Livelihoods, ICZM June 2003 |
|
Again, population growth rate in
the coastal areas is higher than
the national average. In between
1991- 2001 the average
population growth rate was 1.29,
if so continued then by 2020 the
coastal population will be 44
million, more people will be
landless, and more people will
be city bounded for livelihood
earning.
|
Though agriculture is one of the major ways of livelihoods earning of the
coastal population but dependency on agricultural practices has been declining
with the changes of land ownership pattern. In the 1996 agriculture census,
households are grouped into four broad strata on the basis of the distribution of
farm land. These are;
• Non farm households owning less tan 0.05 acre of land
• Small farm households owning 0.05 to 2.49 acres of land
• Medium farm households owning 2.50 to 7.49 acres of land
• Large farm households owning 7.50 acres or more
During the inter-census period between 1960 and 1996 it has been found that the
agriculture dependency of the households changed significantly. In 1996, the
number of medium farm households reduced to 10 percent from 31 percent in
1960. In 1960 the number of non-farm households was 19 percent which
increased to 30 percent in 1996. This statistics clearly mean that;
• The medium farm households are loosing their cultivable land and are
gradually becoming small farm house holds and then to non-farm
households; and,
• The number of marginal and non farm households are increasing |
Land in decimal |
Household Strata |
% of Families |
|
|
1960 |
1996 |
Agri land
< 5 l |
Non farm household |
19 |
30 |
5-249 |
Small farm
household |
41 |
58 |
250-749 |
Medium farm HH |
31 |
10 |
750 or more |
Large household |
9 |
2 |
Total |
100 |
100 |
Table 3: Land ownership pattern in the coastal
districts |
|
Moreover, different survey data shows that the living standard, average life
expectancy, per capita farming land, access to education, health and other basic services, social security etc in the coastal areas are not at expected level in comparison to
national average.
Besides increasing trends of climate change related vulnerabilities
and natural disasters gradually making people’s life more helpless. There is a close proximity between livelihoods of the coastal people and such
vulnerabilities, because the way of livelihood earning of one people class became the catastrophes to others. |
Although affect of natural catastrophes i.e. flood, cyclone, tidal surge etc. are common for all but coping with these is quite different among different class of people, as the coping capacity is a function of the asset base (both ownership and access too). |
Figure 1: Causes of vulnerabilities (BBS, 1999)
|
|
The poor are more vulnerable as their asset base is weak and scanty. The poverty monitoring survey of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) summarized crises in the coastal areas in four categories, are-
Human factor i.e. sudden death of the main income earner, large medical
expenses due to illness, crop loss, social conflict etc.
|
Natural disaster like cyclone, tidal surge, water logging, erosion, salinity
intrusion, etc.
Governance i.e. deterioration of law and order situation (dacoity, money
extortion, abduction, snatching, death threat, case expenditure, occupying of
govt. khas land, natural resource base e.g. destruction of mangroves, over
exploitation of natural resources etc (PDO-ICZMP, 2003). |
| |
|
|
|
|
2. Climate Change and Global Environmental Scenario |
The UNEP Global environment outlook describes global warming as the serious
environmental problem. Though until the late 1990s, it was difficult to state
categorically that the Earth’s atmosphere is getting warmer, but several year of
record breaking temperature now add strong support to that contention.
Thermometer records, which stretch back 130 years, and evidence from tree
rings and ice cores confirms that the Earth is the hottest it has been since at
least the Middle Ages.
The major cause of global warming is the increasingly regular emission of the
green house gases-(GHG), like carbon-di-oxide, carbon-mono-oxide, methane,
chloro-fluro carbon, nitrous oxide etc. heat trapping gases. Among the GHGs,
the heat trapping efficiency of chloro-fluro carbon is 10000 times more than that
of carbon-di-oxide and the emission of chloro-fluro carbon in the atmosphere is
growing at a rate of 5 percent annually. Globally the following activities are
considering as the potential Carbon- dioxide emitting sources;
|
Parameter |
CO2 |
Methane |
N2 O |
CFCs |
Pre-industrial Concentration
(1750-1800) |
280 ppmv |
800
ppbv |
288
ppbv |
Nil |
Concentration in 1990 |
354 ppmv |
1720 ppbv |
310 ppbv |
CFC11=280 pptv
CFC12=484 pptv |
Recent annual growth rate |
0.5% |
0.6-0.8% |
0.2-0.3% |
CFC11=4%
CFC12=4% |
|
Table 4: Pre-industrial and 1990 concentrations of major greenhouse gases and their recent annual growth rate
|
• Combustion of fossil fuel annually adding 5.7 X 109 tons of carbon in the
atmosphere.
• Deforestation, particularly in the growing industrialized countries, annually
adding 0.6 – 0.5 X 109 tons
• Massive utilization of natural coal in China, annually 200 tons of coal, could
contribute upto 3 percent of world’s Carbon-di-oxide emission.
• Increasing trend of cement production, 5 percent annually, also adding
considerable Carbon in the atmosphere.
The UNEP Global Environment Outlook 2000 report also predicts the following
Carbon- dioxide emitting sources in the near future;
• There will be one billion cars by 2025, which was 40 million in 1945
• A quarter of the world’s 4630 types of mammals and 11 percent of the 9,
675 bird species are at serious risk of extinction
• More than half of the world’s coral is at risk of global warming
• 80 per cent of forests have been cleared
• One billion city dwellers are exposed to health risk of air pollution
• The global population will reach 8.9 billion in 2050
• Global warming will raise temperatures to 3.6 degree centigrade, triggering
a devastating rise in sea levels and more severe natural disasters
• Global pesticides use is causing 5 million acute poisoning incidents each year.
|
Fig 2 : Comparison on GHG gases emission during pre-industrial period and in 19902 |
It has been stated that since the industrial revolution the atmospheric
concentration of green house gases has been increasing, primarily due to
human activities, such as combustion of fossil fuel, changes in the land use
resulting deforestation, and expansion and commercialization of agriculture.
Carbon-di-Oxide concentration of 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in
1880 has risen to 354 ppmv in 1990, an increase of about 25 per cent, and
currently raising at rate of about 1.8 ppmv per year (0.5 per cent) due to
anthropogenic emission.
Therefore, increasing of atmospheric Carbon-di-Oxide and other green house
gases would affect the Earth’s radiation budget and thus, lead global warming
and they would have consequences of sea level change.
Meantime, a number of scientific studies have been conduced to measure the
sea level rise and its possible consequences. These studies shows that duringlast 100 years the average mean annual sea level rise was from 0.5mm to 3.0
mm; also some study showed 10 to 25 cm sea level rise.
Although there have different opinion on the casual relationship between global
warming and glacier melting in the Antarctic and the Arctic region but there is
no question on the expansion of sea water with the rises of temperature, as
water density and temperature is reversely correlated. The connection between
global atmospheric warming and the behavior of the ocean surface would mean
an increase in ocean water volume due to acceleration of ice melting process in
Greenland and Antarctic and also by thermal expansion of ocean water. The
IPCC report in 2001 also predicted 0.3 to 0.5 meter and 1 meter sea level rise
respectively by 2030 and 2100.
The 2001IPCC report’s pivotal assertion was that mankind or human activities,
that emitted huge volume of ‘heat trapping’ gases in the earth’s atmosphere,
was to blame for this warming effect. Therefore a number of factors are involved for such environmental crisis, these are;
• Developments in technology throughout the history, which have given people
a better ability to exploit the
environment and its resources from their own ends
• Rapid increase in human population in recent centuries, which has significantly
increased population densities in many countries
• A significant rise in human use of natural resources particularly over the last
centuries
• The emergence of free market economies and neo-liberal policies, in which
economic factors play the central role in decision making about production,
consumption, use of resources etc.
• Consumerism attitudes and culture of people and countries
• Tendency of many people, companies and countries for short term profit
maximization rather thinking for sustainable development and sustainable use
of resources. |
|
|
3. Sea Level Rise and Bangladesh |
Being a low laying deltaic country, Bangladesh will face the serious
consequences of sea level rise including permanent inundation of huge land
masses along the coast line. There is a clear evidence of changing climate in
Bangladesh which is causing changes in the precipitation, increasing nnual
mean temperature and sea level rise. During a period from 1961 to 1990 the
annual mean temperature increased at the rate of 0.0037 degree Celsius but
during 1961 to 2000 the rate was 0.0072. This mean, in the last decade, annual
mean temperature rise was almost double than the previous years.
|
Year |
Rise in sea level (cm) |
Rise in Temperature (0C) |
Changes in precipitation (%) base year 1990 |
Changes in Evaporation |
2nd IPPC projection ( World Bank 2000) |
2030 |
30 |
+ 0.7 in Monsoon
+ 1.3 in Winter |
- 3 in Winter
+ 11 in Monsoon |
+ 0.9 in Winter
+ 15.8 in Monsoon |
2050 |
50 |
+ 1.1 in Monsoon
+ 1.8 In Winter |
- 37 in Winter
+ 28 in Monsoon |
0 in Winter
+ 16.7 in Monsoon |
3rd IPPC Projection ( Agarwala et. al 2003) |
2030 |
|
+ 0.8 in Monsoon
+ 1.1 in Winter |
- 1.2 in Winter
+ 4.7 in Monsoon |
|
2050 |
|
+ 1.1 in Monsoon
+ 1.6 in Winter |
- 1.7 in Winter
+ 11.8 in Monsoon |
|
2100 |
|
+ 1 in Monsoon
+ 2.7 in Winter |
- 3.0 in Winter
+ 11.8 in Monsoon |
|
Table- 5: Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation.
|
We all opined that climatic change is occurring all over the world due to green
house effect, and anticipated sea level rise is likely to destroy most of the
existing coastal areas, if preventive measures can not be taken with integrated
effort globally.
Factual information regarding the extent of sea level rise in Bangladesh is very
limited. Over the last 100 years Bangladesh has warmed up by about 0.5 oC
and 0.5 m rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal (BUP 1993). In the
South western Khulna region 5.18-mm/year sea level rise is recorded which may
reach to 85 cm by 2050. World Bank’s study on the impact of Sea level rise in
Bangladesh reveals that, 100 cm sea level rise within next 100 years will
inundate 15 to 17 percent of country’s land area i.e. 22135 to 26562 square
kilometers, which will make 20 million people environmental refugee and a
country like Bangladesh might not beable to accommodate such huge uprooted
people.
Again, 2 degree temperature and 45 cm sea level rise would increase 29 percent
risks of flooding of country’s low laying areas and may cause permanent
inundation of 145 km long coastline stretches from Cox’sbazar to Badar Mokam.
A report published in 1998 shows that sea level rise would inundate 58 thousand
hectares of agricultural land.
|
Year |
Sea Level Rise (cm) |
Temperate Rise ( oC ) |
% of Changes in precipitation
( base 1990) |
2030 |
30 |
0.7 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter |
3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon |
2050 |
50 |
1.1 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter |
37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon |
Table- 6: Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. |
Global climate experts, including IPCC, warns that Bangladesh will face acute
climate vulnerabilities, water related crises will be increased as the country is
not high above from the mean sea level. Analysis of metrological data from
1977 to 1998 clearly shows annual sea level rise at the rate of 7.88 mm, 6 mm
and 4 mm respectively in Cox,sbazar, Chardanga at Hatiya and Hiron Point in
Sundarban.
Although changes in climatic condition seems little and slow even, but related
consequences of climate change like frequency and impact of flood, cyclone,
drought, irresistibleh diseases etc. are in increasing trend. On the basis of
changing trend SMRC predicts increase of annual mean temperature 0.22o C
till 2050 and 0.41oC till 2100. Similarly annual mean precipitation would
increase 296 mm till 2050 and 543 mm till 2100.
|
Parameters |
Average Scenario |
Worst Scenario |
2050 |
2100 |
2050 |
2100 |
Total relative sea level rise, cm |
83 |
340 |
153 |
460 |
Absolute sea level rise, cm |
13 |
200 |
13 |
220 |
Land subsidence, cm |
70 |
70 |
140 |
240 |
Shoreline erosion km |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
Loss of habitable land, skm |
1 |
26 |
16 |
34 |
Population displaced, % |
7 |
30 |
13 |
40 |
Reduction of Mangrove areas |
50 |
75 |
79 |
95 |
Table 7: Predicted picture of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100
(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, 1986). |
|
|
|
|
4.Bangladesh’s Coast: The Worst Victim to NaturalDisasters |
Any change in climate would lead to destabilization of environmental and social
conditions around the globe. These disturbances could jeopardize the
conservation of natural ecosystems and sustainability of socioeconomic
systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
global average temperature rise has reached 0.6 ± 0.2 °C over the twentieth
century.
There has been a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non- Polar
Regions. In the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent has
decreased by about 10% to 15% since the 1950s. The global ocean heat
content has increased since the late 1950s and the global average sea level
rose by at least 0.1 m during the twentieth century. These changes in global
climatic condition has been increasing the risk of hydro-metrological disasters
globally and causing substantial environmental and economic loss including
loss of lives, especially in the least developed countries like Bangladesh that is
highly exposed to those disasters.
4.1 Salinity and Water Logging
The coastal areas of Bangladesh have already been facing salinity problem
which is expected to be exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise, as
sea level rise is causing unusual height of tidal water. In dry season, when the
flows of upstream water reduce drastically, the saline water goes up to 240
kilometers inside the country and reaches to Magura district. Presently around
31 upazillas of Jessore, Satkhira, Khulna, Narail, Bagerhat and Gopalganj
districts are facing severe salinity problem. Agricultural activities as well as
cropping intensities in those upazillas have been changing; now farmers can’t
grow multiple crops in a year.
As sea level continues to rise the associated effects of permanent inundation is
likely to increase the salinity near coastal areas. A recent study shows that 5
ppt saline front will penetrate about 40 km inland for SLR of 88 cm which is
going to affect the only fresh-water pocket of the TetuliaRiver in Meghna Estuary. A big chunk of the fresh- water zone that will be disappearing due to
sea level rise near to the estuary will have a far reaching effect on the country’s
ecology and will extinct some of its endangered species (marked by IUCN)
for ever.
4.2 Ingression of Soil Salinity
Salinity ingress also causes an increase in soil salinity, especially when farmers
irrigate their lands with slightly saline surface water at the beginning of the low
flow period. SRDI (1997; Soil Resource Development Institute of the
Government of Bangladesh) reported that, soil salinity levels south of Khulna
and Bagerhat towns ranged between 8 to 15 dS/m during the low flow season.
It is also reported that, several sub-districts (such as Kachua, Mollahat, andFultali) south of the Sundarbans „” known to be non-saline in the pre-Farakka
period „” have began to develop soil salinity during the low flow seasons of
1980s. The anticipated results of salinity ingress will be, at a minimum, of the
same order for climate change induced low flow regime compared to similar
effects shown by deliberate withdrawal of flows at Farakka barrage.
The anticipated sea level rise would produce salinity impacts in three fronts:
surface water, groundwater and soil. Increased soil salinity due to climate
change would significantly reduce food grain production. Even at present, some
parts of coastal lands are not being utilized for crop production, mostly due to
soil salinity; and this situation would aggravate further under a climate change
scenario. A modeling exercise has indicated that, under the changed climate
conditions, the index of aridity would increase in winter (Huq, et al. eds.1999).
Consequently, higher rates of capillary action from an increased rate of topsoil
desiccation would accentuate the salinity problem.
Impacts of Salinity
- 10% more land (relative to 1990) will be saline-affected and intensity will be
increased by 10 %
- Decreases availability/productivity of agricultural land;
- Increased food insecurity as naturally-growing species disappear;
- Serious scarcity of safe drinking water;
15
- Loss of biodiversity, e.g. decrease in tree species and freshwater fish;
- Creates socioeconomic problems, generally women will be more vulnerable.
|
|
Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion
A direct consequence of sea level rise would be intrusion of salinity with tide through the rivers and estuaries. It would be more acute in the dry season, especially when freshwater flows from rivers would diminish. According to an estimate of the Master Plan Organization, about 14,000 sq km of coastal and offshore areas have saline soils and are susceptible to tidal flooding. If some 16,000 sq km of coastal land is lost due to a 45 cm rise in sea level, the salinity front would be pushed further inland. The present interface between freshwater and saline water lies around 120 to 160 km inland in the southwest, and this could well be pushed northward as far as central Jessore region in the event of a sea level rise (BIDS/ADB 1994) |
|
4.3 Flood and Water Logging
Due to geographical setting Bangladesh has to receive and drain-out huge
volume of upstream waters. The flows of mighty rivers the Meghna, Padma andBrhammaputra, originated from the Himalayans, drain-out in the Bay of
Bengal flowing through-out the country. In the summer, from May to August, the
melting of glaciers in the Himalayans make the rivers in Bangladesh live. The
rainy season, which is strongly influenced by monsoon wind from the South-
West, also sets on at the same period and causes huge precipitation.
Therefore, the combined effect of upstream flows, precipitation and terrestrial
run-off resulted to over flooding, causing water logging and prolong flood almost
every year. But the worsening condition is that the trend of melting ice along
with rainfall has been increasing due to rising temperature in th Himalayans. As
result the frequent floods are happening causing devastating affect to the
people’s live and livelihoods.
On the other hand, rising sea level is causing water level rise in the rivers and
thereby accelerating risks of flood and water logging. Again, as the elevation
our coastal plain is only 3-5 meter from the mean sea level, a vast coastal
areas, approximately 18% of total land, would submerge by 1 meter sea level
rise. The major reason behind this assumptions are a) no defense mechanism
for the protection of coastal plain land and b) sea level will rise following the contour line. But in fact, the coastal plain lands in central zone, the sediment
rich and fresh water flow dominated areas are naturally well protected.
Nonetheless some areas are remaining under risk of over flooding due to back
water effect.
The problem of water logging might be more dangerous than flooding. Already
many coastal places, where sustainable drainage network system hasn’t
developed, are facing water logging problem and the intensity of problem is
appearing as a catastrophe day by day. This is to keep in mind that in the
beginning years of dam/ embankment construction there was no EIA
(Environmental Impact Assessment) and those embankments hampered the
natural siltration process and slowing down the creation of delta. Therefore, the
unplanned dam/embankment construction, in one hand, is causing flood and
water logging problem, and on the other hand provocating severity of sea level
rise through hampering natural siltration process. To face this problem effective
measure should be taken, especially in the coastal areas. Likewise densely populated coastal areas, Sundarban, the world’s largest stretch of mangrove
forest, is also vulnerable to the consequences of global warming and sea level
rise. As the tidal flow and wave action is high in the mangrove forest area so
only 45 centimeters sea level rises would inundate about 75 percent of forest
area and 67 centimeters rise in sea level would submerge the entireSundarbans. Though, in congruence with sea level rise, siltration process would
cause relative elevation of Sundarban but this relative elevation might not be
enough to combat the risk of sea level rise. In fact the risk of over flooding and
inundation of Sundarban is still a concern.
4.4 Intrusion of Saline water
Salinity intrusion in Bangladesh coast is very seasonal. In the rainy season
(June-October) intrusion of saline water is minimum due to extreme flow of
fresh water, but in the dry season, especially in winter, saline water goes
upward gradually. In the rainy season where saline water ingress to 10 percent
of country’s area, in the dry season saline water reaches to country’s 40
percent area even. Due to changing climate the ingression of salinity might be
increased through following way.
- Increased sea level will cause water ingression in the rivers.
- Decreasing trend of fresh water flow from the upstream will cause intrusion
of saline water.
- Upward pressure of the saline and fresh water interface in the level of
underground Aquifer
- Downward seepage of saline water from surface and salinisation of
underground water
- The pace of evaporation in winter will increase soil salinity
- Frequency and intensity of tidal surges will increase ingression of saline
water. |
|
|
5.
Other Natural Disasters and Bangladesh |
The coastal geomorphology of Bangladesh is characterized by its funnel
shaped, vast network of river, strong tidal and wind action and enormous river
discharge laden with bed and suspended sediments. Aside with these, wide
and open coast, strong current and wind, dynamics of erosion and siltration,
natural slopping of the continent etc. are considered as the salient features
behind the causes of natural disasters. The poverty monitoring survey of
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in 1999 identified different natural
disasters like cyclone, river bank erosion, salinity intrusion, water stagnation,
heavy rainfall etc. as the main causes of perpetuating coastal poverty.
5.1 Cyclone and Bangladesh’s Coast
The entire coastal zone is prone to violent storm and tropical cyclones during
pre monsoon and post monsoon season. Therefore, the Bangladesh coastal
zone could be termed a geographical ‘death trap’ due to its extreme
vulnerability to cyclones and storm surges. Nearly one million people have
been killed in Bangladesh by cyclones since 1820. As many as 10 percent of
the world’s cyclone develop in the Indian Ocean but they cause 85 percent of
the world’s cyclonic havoc (Gray, 1968). The massive loss of life from cyclones
is due to the large number of coastal people living in poverty within poorly
constructed houses, the inadequate numbers of cyclone shelters, the poor
cyclone forecasting and warning systems and the extremely low laying lands in
the coastal zones. |
Sometimes cyclone associated
with tidal waves caused great loss
of lives and property. The
physiology, morphology and other
natural conditions have made it
vulnerable to disaster, cyclonic
storms and floods which are very devastating and cause immense suffering and damage to people,
property and the environment. Cyclonic storms have always been a major concern to coastal plains
and offshore island of Bangladesh.
|
|
Risk of Cyclone: Bangladesh is in
number 1 in Asia
A UNDP report titled ‘Reducing Risk of
Natural Disasters: A Development Challenge’
says that among the Asian countries
Bangladesh is highly prone to cyclonic
disaster. The report also says, during 1980 to
2000 cyclone caused death of 250 thousand
people worldwide, of which 60 percent were
in Bangladesh. Although, the Philippines is
more vulnerable to cyclone than Bangladesh
but cyclonic death is 10 times more in
Bangladesh than the Philippines. |
Usually, cyclone is a vortex of low
pressure system characterized by large scale convergence of moist air in the
boundary layer which forces to ascend vertically upward causing strong
columns convection and releasing large amount of latent heat due to
condensation. Whenever a convective cloud mass develops over the southern
Bay and sustain for a number of days without decaying then there is a
probability that the system may develop into a tropical cyclone and it is needed
to keep watch on such a system. There are some other characteristics in the structure and dimension of the cloud mass which provides indication of a probable cyclogenesis and these can be monitored through satellite image.
Cyclones usually forms in the Bay of Bengal under some metrological
conditions, these are;
- At least 27 degree Celsius temperature in an extended sea surface area
creating huge volume of water vapor.
- Absence of vertical air or strong presence of depression area
- Presence of Coriolis force. |
Cyclones those hit the coastal areas of
Bangladesh, usually forms in the‘Intertropical Convergence Zone’
situated between 5 and 10 degree
latitudes of the Indian Ocean. These
cyclones, afterward, directed above 6-9
km from the sea surface towards the
coast through accelerating speed and
force by wind blowing.
|
|
 |
Therefore, the cyclone accompanied with torrential rain and devastating tidal
surge causes havoc to lives and property in the cyclone path, and the
environment in the affected area. In the islands and coastal mainland of
Bangladesh the major aftermaths of a cyclone are loss of human lives,
livestock’s, fishes, agricultural properties and production, inundation of land and
ponds by saline water, loss of houses, break-down of sanitation system, nonavailability
of safe drinking water and food stuff.
From the historical records it can be seen that there are two peaks in the annual
distribution of the tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal, one is May
and another is the November within the peak season pre-monsoon (April-May)
and post monsoon (Oct- Nov) respectively. During 1891-1990, 700 cyclones
occurred, of which 62 in pre-monsoon and 192 in Post-monsoon season. |
The submersion of
the industrial
machinery, electrical
equipment and
vessels cause them
to be useless
hardware; dispersion
of wastes, oil and
toxic materials from
them make an
environmental
concern. The calamity
brings in a major and
sudden change in the
ecosystem and it
takes a long time for
restoration. |
|
 |
Approximately 45 damaging cyclones were reported in the coastal areas of
Bangladesh from 1793 to May 1997, thus cyclone frequency during this period
averaged once in every 4.5 years. Among which the devastating cyclones
occurred in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1970, 1985 and 1991 and in 1996.
Besides, the historic book ‘Ain e Akbari’ quoted a devastating cyclone in the
Barishal region in 1854. The last devastation cyclones that hit Bangladesh
occurred respectively 12 November 1970, 29 April 1991 and 15 November
2007. Cyclone in 1970 caused death of 300,000 people with a financial loss of
USD 86.4 million. In 1991 cyclone an estimated 131,000 to 139,000 people
died, with the majority of those dying being below the age of 10, and a third of
them below the age of five; also more women than men died (Talukder and
Ahmed, 1992). An estimated 1 million homes were completely destroyed, and a
further 1 million damaged. Up to 60% of cattle and 80% of poultry stocks were
destroyed and up to 280,000 acres of standing crops destroyed; 740 km of
flood embankments were destroyed or badly damaged, exposing 72,000
hectares of rice paddy to salt water intrusion. The floodwaters brought disease
and hunger to the survivors. The total economic impact of the cyclone was
US$2.4 to 4.0 billion (Kausher et al., 1996).
On the other hand cyclone SIDR that hit Bangladesh coast on 15 November
2007 caused death of 3199 people with huge economic loss estimated as USD 3 billion.
Historical Background: Cyclone 1970, 1991
A number of devastating cyclones hit Bangladesh’s coast in 1797, 1822, 1876,
1897, 1901, 1941, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1970, 1985, 1991 and 1996,
among which cyclones of 1970 and 1991caused huge loss of lives and assets.
A study conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics in 1991showed,
people aged between 15 and 49 managed to secure themselves, while
children, elderly people, women were died more. During 1970 the coastal areas
were not well protected with encircling embankment, even, early warning and
cyclone tracking system was not so modern and adequate, which caused huge
loss of lives. |
Confusion on High Danger Signal
Usually the high danger signal mean 125 km wind speed hourly. There are no more signals although wind speed goes high. It also observed that a cyclone declared as danger one was not so violent in terms of the loss of the properties and human life; that grows people’s mistrust on issuing high danger signal. In fact the cyclonic havoc depends on some other factors like time of passing the coast either low or high tide period, possible surge heights relative to ground levels etc. Cyclone passing the coast during low tide time usually does less harm. The cyclone tat hit Bangladesh on 29 November 1988 was of 200 km/h speed but its damage was as huge as predicated as it passed during low tide period.
That is why; coastal people very often do not consider the warning signals as of high importance even it is at upper scale. |
After 1970 cyclone, though government constructed coastal embankment and
modernized cyclone forecasting and tracking system but these couldn’t save
coastal people when another diabolic cyclone hit in 1991, because appropriate
preparedness measures were not taken and people also were reluctant to find
a safe place. Even now level of cyclone preparedness is not so adequate,
there have political as well as policy negligence in this relation.
Cyclone Warning System
As soon as the depression formed in the Bay of Bengal, the warnings are
issued by the Metrological Department using a system for warning shipping of
an impending cyclone. The related information on cyclone formation and its
tracking are colleted from international satellite images. The warning system
uses a scale from 1 to 11 for the sea ports and 1 to 4 for river ports. The
differences in cyclone severity indicated by the 11 point scale have limited use
for the coastal inhabitants because they do not contain specific information
regarding the wind speed and direction, possible surge heights relative to
ground levels, possibilities of inundation and damages etc. However, there is
general comprehension that the higher the number, the more urgent the need
to react. |
Table 8: Major Cyclones: What damage we had |
Date |
Wind Speed
Km/hr. |
Tidal Height
(Meter) |
Human death
(million) |
Financial Loss
(USD) |
Nov.12 1970 |
196 |
4.5-6 |
0.3 Govt.
1.2 Media |
86.4 m |
April29, 1991 |
225 |
6-10 |
0.13 Govt. |
1780m
|
|
5.2 Coastal Erosion
River erosion and loss of coastal habitable and cultivable land is an acute
national problem and one of the major natural hazards. Although erosion does
not cause loss of lives, but it cause huge economic loss; makes people asset
and rootless.
Mr. Bob Makenro, the regional chief of the International Federation of the Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRCS) in 2000 identified the river erosion
as the largest concern of Bangladesh. But very few people concerned about it.
He mentioned that the complexity of the issue is critical enough to be
addressed in the mass media properly. According to him, this is a slow, silent
disaster. Another report ( DFID, in association with Disaster Forum) identified
the river erosion as the country’s topmost disaster concerning the losses. The
World Disaster Report 2001 published by IFRCS, reveals that in Bangladesh
annually 1 million people displaced and 9 thousand heaters of land inundated
by river erosion.
Since long years, erosion has been becoming a regular natural phenomenon
along the belts of out reach coastal islands like Bhola, Sandwip, Hatia, Kubdia,
which has been turned to massive in the recent years. The major causes of
erosion are observed as;
- The Ganges Brahamputra Meghna (GBM) river system carries immense
volume of water silt. During the monsoon, GBM system carries about 1.7 billion tons of silts per year causing severe turbulence the rivers. This
results in gradual undercutting of riverbanks leading to erosion.
- During high tide 30868 m3 sea water flows upward through the cannels of
Kutubdia, Sandwip and Hatia. Again these channels carry down the
upstream fresh waters from 38,896 m2 coastal and midland areas of
Bangladesh. The immense pressure of the downwards flows, strong tidal
circulation etc. results unprecedented erosion of coastal habitats.
By river bank erosion Hatiya has reduced from 1000 sq. km to only 21 sq km
over 350 years and Swandip has lost 180 sq km in the last 100 years. Such
erosion adversely affect on the ecosystem, navigation, planned agriculture
development and drainage system. It has also affect on inland navigational
route as of shifting and migration of channels. Factors those are accelerating
riverbank and land erosion are: a) destruction of coastal mangroves for shrimp
farming and b) unplanned dam and cross road construction etc.
Apart from this, in each year the GMB river system carries 6 million cusecs of
water with 2179 million metric tons of sediments resulting water logging in the
rainy season and causes flooding. Siltration raises river bed up that reduces the
intensity of water flowing as well as hampering the breeding and nursing
ground of Hilsa ilisa, the major open water fishery in Bangladesh. As force of
upstream water flow reduces, seawater tends to flow upstream. Such intrusion
of saline water affect to the coastal agriculture. Top dying disease of Sundari
tree in the Sundarban Mangrove forest is also caused for saline water intrusion
in the fresh water areas.
|
Kutubdia under constant threat of erosion
Kutubdia, an outreach island of 97 Square Miles( 250 km2) is under threat of continuous erosion, which has been happening through the process of strong tidal action and cyclonic effect. The pace of erosion is so high that with a 100 years period from 1880 to 1980 Kutubdia reduced to 23 square miles ;
-
57/ 58 square mile during 1880 to 1900
-
40/42 square mile during 1900 to 1947
-
34/ 35 square mile during 1947 to 1959
-
26/27 square mile during 1960 to 1977
-
22/ 23 square mile during 1978 to 1986
|
During July to September 2004, a research work on river bank erosion has
been conducted in Bhola district, which reveals the followings;
- 3332 family lost their houses for river erosion |
- Among the homeless
families 48.23% families
took shelter beside the
embankment, 39.89%
took shelter on the river
bank and, only 3.48%
families had their own
land to shift their houses
- 21 schools were
affected, 7 were
abolished completely
and 14 were under
constant risk of being
eroded. There is no
available resources like
land, construction
materials etc to rebuild
the school elsewhere in
the community.
During last 40 years, Bhola
Island has been squeezed
to 3400 km2 from 6400 km2
in 1960. This mean, Bhola
suffered net loss of 3000 km2. A huge number of households and commercially
important places in Bhola island like Daulatkhan, Mirzakalu, Molongchara,Sarajgonj, Chowmohoni, Tazumiar have completed been eroded within couple
of decades. If this pace of erosion continues, it has been apprehending thatBhola may disappear completely by next 40 years. But there is also opposite
feature which has been happening due to accretion. |
|
Table 9: Cyclone centers in the coastal districts
District |
No of center |
% of people could take shelter |
Bagerhat |
82 |
11 |
Borguna |
70 |
17 |
Barishal |
57 |
5 |
Bhola |
208 |
24 |
Candpur |
5 |
- |
Chittagong |
492 |
15 |
Cox’sbazar |
455 |
52 |
Feni |
106 |
18 |
Jhalokathi |
26 |
8 |
Khulna |
34 |
3 |
Laxmipur |
110 |
15 |
Noakhali |
202 |
16 |
Patuakhali |
196 |
27 |
Pirojpore |
42 |
8 |
Satkhira |
48 |
5 |
Total |
2133 |
- |
|
Kutubdia, an outreach island situated in the south-eastern part of the Bay of the
Bengal, has been eroding fast due to strong tidal action, as well as by cyclonic
action and storm surges. This island, once which was 250-squire kilometer is
size, lost around its 65 percent during last 100 years and more than 60 percent
of its population migrated in urban areas and, many others are thinking to be
migrated as presently 2700 people live in per square kilometer areas. |
Embankment Construction and Corruption: What’s the Alternative?
Embankments are designed to dissipate the energy of cyclone wave and allow overtopping. Following the cyclone of 1970, government has taken massive initiative for coastal embankment construction for the protection of human lives. Since then, in relation of embankment construction, an ill-beneficiary group comprising of contractor, civil servant, political party leaders has emerged who in many ways are involved in looting money. Although embankment is not the only solution of protection but, it is thought that if the embankments were constructed following proper design criteria then these could last for a longer period and could save the people at risk. In many places coastal embankments were washed out either by cyclone or erosion. In Kutubdia, during 1991 cyclone, the embankment was washed away due to poor design and construction. The embankment which was constructed in Kutubdia after 1991 cyclone also was damaged by erosion within 3 years of its construction. The major causes of damages are;
- Post construction maintenance was not done adequately
- Using inadequate and low-quality construction materials and looting of project money. There is a popular saying that ‘tidal flow washed away all the construction materials –says the contractors as an excuse of not using adequate soil, sand bags, boulders etc.’
- The other factors of construction like building as per design, forest creation outside the embankment, slopping etc were not considered during embankment constructi
In Kutubdia Island, it was widely recognized that people those who were involved in embankment construction became richer overnight, presently those who are the richest person even some also involved in party politics. During the onset of rainy season these vested politicians and contractors manages local journalist for news publication on the importance of embankment construction and then they lobby for emergency construction fund; maximum of which are being looted. But there are also instances of proper construction; especially those were constructed under direct supervision of armed forces. Therefore the proposals of embankment construction are; a) ignore contactor system and ensure direct involvement of armed forces, b) using permanent structure rather than earth filling only, c) ensuring participation of local people in planning and implementation process, and c) creation of natural forest based on local and indigenous experiences. |
|
|
6. . Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh |
6.1 Cyclonic Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh
The immense pressure on the land and resources forces people to remain in
the areas vulnerable to cyclones. These pressures are likely to increase with an
annual increase of more than 1 million people, exposing people frequently to
the dangers of cyclone and flooding. Although the risks of cyclone and other
natural disasters are increasing but still sustainable disaster risk reduction
practices are far away from the reality. Also there have inadequacies cyclone
shelters to ensure protection of the exposed people. In 1991 cyclone despite
raising mass awareness number of death was high for not having adequate
cyclone shelter. |
Actually, cyclone shelter, reinforced
concrete buildings designed to save
human life from cyclones are the
second part of the CPP program. A
five-year shelter construction
program was initiated in 1972, but
was abandoned after only 23
shelters were built-an estimated of
the 10 percent of the actual demand
(Talukder and Ahmad 1992). The
program was re-started after the
1985 cyclone and further 62 shelters
were constructed. Besides, after
1970’s cyclone the government
Bangladesh constructed 238
cyclone shelters under IDA credit,
each of which can accommodate
800 people. |
|
World Disaster Report of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 10 2006 says that the number of disasters have been increased during last century with a dramatic increase during last 10 years.
- During the period from 1991 to 1999 there were 354 natural disaster world wide annually
- During 2000-2004 there are 728 natural disaster world-wide annually, which is more than double than the annual average disasters of previous decade.
- During last decade on an average 258 million people have been affected annually by any of disasters.
- Almost 75% of world population live in such places that were affected by any forms of disaster during 1980-2000
|
Since 1985, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society has constructed 60 shelters,
which can accommodate over 499 people each, but during 1991 cyclone there
were only 3 hundred cyclones shelters in Bangladesh where as requirement
was 5 thousand, and at that time many people, especially women and elderly
people, didn’t find any shelter to save themselves. Presently there are 2133
cyclone shelters in 15 coastal districts many of which were broken down and
there is no regular repairing and maintenance. Apart from this, in 1996 there
were 190 killa, an elevated ground basically to provide shelters to the cattle.
Though, the weather department of the government of Bangladesh forecasts
weather bulletin and early warning signal but people have little trust on these,
because forecasted news, in many cases, treated as fake. On the other hand
the language of weather bulletin is fair and the outreach coastal people often
can’t follow and understand the bulletin as they are used to communicate in
local language.
6.2 Rescue and Coping
Bangladesh cyclone preparedness program has three components viz. warning,
shelter construction and disaster relief. This system relies heavily on the
grassroots support system based on 2089 units of 10 volunteers each. But the
real fact is that the number of cyclone center is very few to ensure shelter to
the increasingly population, moreover in many places structure itself is
vulnerable to natural disaster. On the other hand post disaster rescue, relief
and rehabilitation is also a gruesome process. It is fact that after every cyclone
huge money has been allocated from government and donor agencies for relief
and rehabilitation but somehow affected were deprived from getting these. In
this circumstances it is important to develop own mechanism to cope with the
situation and to support to the survival strategies of coastal population.
|
| |
6.3 Initiative to Protect Erosion
Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of the government of
Bangladesh bears the responsibility to protect coastal areas through
constructing embankment and also repairing the old ones. It is true that
government has no adequate resources to do needful construction, government
also has no proper planning and monitoring system. In many cases new
embankment was build within a short distance of eroding ones, which again
become risky by the following years. On the other hand, due to not having
proper monitoring, the constructing agents don’t use required boulders or sand
bags.
In fact, the role of the coastal embankment is not to protect land completely
from storm surge flooding. Instead they are designed to dissipate the energy of
waves and to allow overtopping. However, ‘for the protection of human lives a
coastal embankment that is breached is worse than no coastal embankment’
(FAP 7, 1992). Embankments can give residents a false sense of security. As a
result, upgrading coastal embankment and coastal forestation is only a partial
solution. ( Kausher et. al 1993). However it is thought that if the embankments
are constructed following proper engineering design criteria, and post construction maintenance is done adequately, the chance embankment failure
is minimal. In Potenga, during the 1991 cyclone, the embankment was washed
out due to poor design and construction; the embankment was unable to resist
the force exerted by the turbulent storm surge, resulting in a huge loss of life in
the country side villages.
On the other hand, to protect Kutubdia Island from erosion WAPDA constructed
40 kilometers embankment, of which 24 kilometers were damaged in 1991
cyclone. After 1991 WAPDA took initiatives to build up new embankment
keeping about 5 villages outside of the embankment areas, which further
reduces the land areas of that island. Although 10.5 kilometers embankment is
under risk but WAPDA is constructing only 0.420 kilometer, in this situation if
another disaster hit Kutubdia, there will have no way left to save its population. |
|
|
7. Disaster and Global Scenario |
The last decade (especially the last five years) has been identified as disaster
decade. In 2004, 280,000 people died due to Tsunami and million of people
become rootless and environmental refugee. Devastating floods and cyclones
caused huge loss of life and properties in China, India, USA and some parts of
Europe. Around 240,000 people have been affected with famine in Nizare and
presently people in Malawi are facing the drought and periodical food shortage.
The devastating affect of cyclones Hurricane, Katrina and Rita etc. again
remind us that, nowhere in the world is free of risk of natural disaster.
Simultaneously, besides the natural calamities, we are facing man made
disaster like war, insurgency, pollution etc.
Analyses shows that during the last decade both the hydro-meteorological (e.g.
drought, flood, cyclone) and geographical disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption) have been increased worldwide with more prevalence of
hydro-meteorological disasters compared to the geographical disasters. This
trend clearly indicates the impending risks of changing global climate those will
be more dangerous in the coming years, as scientists predict. As a result the
devastations of cyclone, hurricane will increase, drought and rainfall might be
prolonged.
|
|
8. Governance: A Critical Concern that IncreasesInsecurity |
In May-August 2002 a survey on Perceptions on Direct Stakeholders on
Coastal Livelihoods (PDSCL) was carried out in the coastal belt of Bangladesh.
|
|
Carbon Trade & Consumerism of the Rich Countries
There is a prediction of rising world temperature from 1.4-1.8 0 C than the industrial period by 2100 if the present trend of green house gas emission continues. This rise in temperature may cause 1 meter sea level and will inundate small island states and the low laying areas of Bangladesh leaving millions of people environmental refugee. Apart from this, occurrence of natural disasters like flood, drought, cyclone etc will be increased which will hamper crop production. Out break of irresistible disease also will appear. Therefore, the climate cage impact will be more severe in the poor countries as the poor countries have no financial, even technical capacity to face such risks. Though countries of rich economy are mostly responsible for endangering the world but their response to mitigate the crisis is still beyond satisfaction level. The United State is solely responsible for 25% of total CO2 emission in the world, wherein Bangladesh contributes less than 1%. To safe the world from growing environmental risk an initiative of reducing green house gas emission was taken by the world climate scientists during 1980s. Following this event in 1992 an agreement (Framework Convention on Climate Change-FCCC) was adopted in the United Nation conference (UN conference on Environment and Development-UNCED). In this historic conference the world leaders agreed that ‘every country has the common and specific responsibilities of Green House Gas reduction; countries of big economies (industrialized countries) who are the major GHG emitters should take the initial and prime role of GHG reduction. But still the rich nations are reluctant towards reducing green house gases. Nevertheless the industrialized nations have been asked in FCCC conference to formulate their own national policies of GHG reduction to 1990 level by 2012.
In 1997 the third UNFCCC conference was held in Kyoto, Japan. The prime objective of this conference was to review the commitment of industrialized countries (Given in FCCC conference in 1992) of GHG reduction. In Kyoto conference industrialized nations agreed to reduce GHG emission at least 5.2% from the level of 1990 during the period of 2008-2012. The Kyoto Protocol also offers ‘alternative ways’ of contributing GHG reduction for the industrialized nations through investing on ‘Clean Development Mechanism’ and ‘Green Technologies’ in the developing countries. This flexibility would allow major GHG emitters to continue emission in another way. Development of CDM and Green Technologies is a requirement but GHG mitigation is an urgent. |
|
This survey identifies deteriorating law and order as a major worry among the people, resulting in restricted mobility (particularly women) and increased insecurity. This phenomenon has also been acknowledged in the PRSP
(Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper) documents and has been attributed to
weakening of governance, criminalization of politics, corruption, violation of
citizen’s right, breakdown of traditional moral order and intolerant political culture |
|
|
9. Climate change, Disaster and DevelopmentChallenges |
In 2004 worldwide disaster caused economic loss of $ 123 billion most of which
were in the poor countries as the countries face multidimensional problems of
economic backwardness, poverty, unplanned urbanization and different man
made & natural disasters. |
| |
Development Aid for Unsustainable Development …….!
During the final decade of the nineteenth century the theory of classical economic liberalism emerged that defined ‘the market’ as the proper guiding instrument of economic development. This policy calls for reducing the roles of government in providing social welfare, in managing economic activity at the aggregate and scrotal level, and in regulating international commerce. This proposition is applied to all nations engaged in world commerce, whether they are rich or poor, agricultural or industrial, creditors or debtors. In fact it was a trickery of developed countries to market their product globally.
However to ease the multilateral trading and to deregulate market the same policies have been carried out throughout the South and East under the guise of structural adjustment, which is merely another name for neo-liberalism. The international financial institutions e.g. the World Bank, IMF etc. have been imposing neo-liberals to the LDCs as the conditions of giving loans. Such loan conditionalities have concentrated all their efforts only on the point that countries, in any way, must earn foreign currency for stabilizing ‘balance of payment’.
Therefore to facilitate Bangladesh in export earning World Bank supported the country for shrimp farming extension culture under a project called Shrimp Culture Project (World Bank Credit no 1651 BD), at it has potential export market
This project resulted total destruction of the ‘Chokoria Sundarban” once the pristine forest and the second largest mangrove forest of Bangladesh, which completely destroyed for shrimp culture. Total disappearance of Chakoria mangroves in Cox,bazaar is 21020.45 acre. According to official sources as of 1996 a total of 67500 acre has been brought under shrimp cultivation in Cox’s Bazar of which 30346 are govt. land (12182 acres khas land, 17026 acres forest and 1138 acres other govt. land). |
|
According to the World Bank report, $ 7.5 billion will be needed to overcome
the loss of Tsunami in Indonesia, India and Srilanka and $ 5 billion will be
needed to recover the earthquake loss in Kashmir, Pakistan. Again, EC-HAD
(Humanitarian Assistance Department) reported that the poor countries are
facing at least 3 percent loss of their expected GDP income annually. Due to
this crisis many poor countries are being compelled to borrow the loan from
IMF & WB with hard conditionalties or have to depend on assistance from rich
countries. Thus, to pay back incurred loan government, very often, reduces
social expenditure and impose increased taxes to its population. |
|
10.
Disaster Preparedness: Needs a Long Term Planning |
Conventional outlook to disasters like disaster preparedness, capacity building
to face disaster, relief and rehabilitation activities etc are not adequate enough
to face climate change vulnerabilities and development challenges- says Hilary
Ben, State Secretary of the International Development affairs, UK. The extent of
social and economic impacts of climate associated disasters will be huge and it
will require national and international efforts and planned investment to face the
disaster shock.
In fact, the risk of economic loss could be reduced through adequate and
planned financing on disaster preparedness and capacity building. A study of
the World Bank and the US Geological Survey calculate that USD 280 million
economic losses of disasters in 1990s could be saved if USD 40 million were
invested in preparedness. Alternatively we could say that 1 dollar investment
would save 7 dollar loss. During the last 40 years China invested USD 1.3
billion for flood protection which saved county’s USD 12 billion forecasted loss.
Bangladesh also should integrate disaster preparedness in its long term
development planning, although it would be very expensive. Different study
calculates that Bangladesh will require USD 1 billion to face the impact of sea
level rise, USD 13 billion to rehabilitate 13 million ousted coastal population,
and USD 12 million to safeguard coast. However the loss of decreasing
productivity which is assuming 28 to 57 percent reduction of crop production
from the present level by 1 meter sea level rise would never be repairable. |
|
11. Capacity Building: The Only Way |
May be, we can not prevent the hazards of natural disasters completely, but we
can reduce disaster risk and vulnerability through increasing our capacity.
Capacity building also depends on the economical condition as well as political
commitment of a country that is why; global cooperation is required as priority
basis. |
| |
|
|
. |
Root Causes |
|
Dynamic
Pressures |
|
Unsafe Conditions |
|
Disaster |
|
Hazard |
Limited Access to Power Structures
Resource
Ideologies
Political systems Economic System |
|
Lack of
Local institutions
Training
Appropriate skills
Local investments
Local markets
Press freedom
Ethical standards
Macro Forces
Rapid population growth
Rapid urbanization
Arms Expenditure
Debt repayment schedules
Deforestation
Decline in soil productivity |
|
Fragile Physical Environment
Dangerous locations
Unprotected buildings and infrastructure
Fragile Local economy
Livelihoods at risks
Low income levels
Vulnerable society
Special groups at risk
Lack of local institutions
Public actions
Lack of disaster preparedness
Prevalence of endemic disease |
|
Risk =
Hazard +
Vulnerability |
|
Earthquake
High winds
(Cyclone/
hurricane/
typhoon)
Flooding
Volcanic eruption
Landslide
Drought
Virus and
pests |
Fig : Progression of human vulnerability to disasters. Disasters are caused by hazards events, but the impacts on people are strongly influenced by degree of vulnerability. This in turn is a product of unsafe conditions, which result from important root causes and compounded by dynamic pressures.
Source: Blaikie, P.,T. Cannon, L. Davis and B. Wisner (1994); At risk: natural hazards, peoples’ vulnerability and disasters. |
|
|
|
12. WayConsidering Factors for Capacity Building |
Local Level
- Training on disaster preparedness involving local institution/ local government
- Weather forecast and disaster bulletin has to broadcast in easy and local language
- Infrastructure development such as cyclone shelter, coastal embankment and ensure their regular maintenance
- More consultation and discussion on climate change related consequences
- Establishment of community radio station
National Level
- Initiate rural centric development activities and create rural employment that will reduce urban migration.
- Increase more budgetary allocation for disaster preparedness and rehabilitation activities
- To increase coastal forestation - Salinity tolerant crop variety development and increase research initiative on it.
- Proper initiative to reduce population growth
- Banning on the establishment of harmful and pollutant producing industries like Cement Brick field, ship breaking
- Preserve rights of marginalized community people such as fishermen and tribe etc
- Plantation those trees that can reduce disaster vulnerabilities e.g. Coconut, Palm, Betel nut , Bamboo etc
- Stop commercialization and corporatization of natural resources,
- Stop chemicalization of agriculture
International Level
- Make alliance with the countries, which will be affected more due to climate change and GHG emission and lobby with the industrially developed countries to reduce GHG emission |
Click here to download this publication as pdf file . |
|
|
© 2007, Equity BD.House-9/4, Road-2, Shamoli, Dhaka. Tel: 8125181, 8154673, Fax:: 9129395
email: info@equitybd.org, web: www.equitybd.org
|
|
|
